Burdensome-Accusation
0x3992d1dbbdf82f90e0413beffee18e9d0e6a6b2d
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$8.16
Total PnL
$-382.51
Realised
$-8.45
Win rate
33%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- NO
Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?
76 shares @ 7.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.18
$-1.14
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2 shares @ 45.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.51
$0.61
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
1 shares @ 69.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.31
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1 shares @ 82.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.94
$0.13
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
15 shares @ 7.3¢·now 3.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.53
$-0.57
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 2?
631 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-30.29
- IOWA HAWKEYES
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5)
265 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-124.45
- NO
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
178 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-13.60
- NO
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
153 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-8.28
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 1?
131 shares @ 43.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-57.64
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?$6.00Jun 29, 13:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?$8.00Jun 29, 13:34 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?$10.00Jun 29, 13:34 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$48.00Jun 29, 13:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?$26.97Apr 29, 21:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 100-119 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?$49.96Apr 29, 21:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jeremiyah Love go top 10 in the 2026 Pro Football draft? $62.00Apr 29, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Cramer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?$0.70Apr 24, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.30Apr 22, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?$0.45Apr 22, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?$0.56Apr 22, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?$0.06Apr 22, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?$0.30Apr 22, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?$0.30Apr 22, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.80Apr 22, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$1.26Apr 22, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?$1.13Apr 22, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 100-119 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?$12.61Apr 22, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$1.05Apr 22, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 100-119 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?$3.92Apr 22, 02:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $5.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 20:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 29, 13:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.