Warm-Secretary
0x3cafe19c407342bc7cea21424e861c37038c6d8a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$10.0K
Total PnL
$18.4K
Realised
$19.2K
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
3155 shares @ 86.2¢·now 79.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.5K
$-227.65
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
1507 shares @ 83.8¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$173.66
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
1636 shares @ 86.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$24.55
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
2182 shares @ 79.3¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$-518.89
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
1027 shares @ 86.7¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$980.69
$90.69
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
810 shares @ 94.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$773.14
$4.46
- YES
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?
1194 shares @ 42.5¢·now 53.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$638.03
$130.17
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
677 shares @ 78.4¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$518.17
$-12.83
- NO
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?
138 shares @ 76.4¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$120.40
$14.69
- NO
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
125 shares @ 80.1¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$109.26
$9.32
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.13Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$111.00Jul 28, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$100.00Jul 28, 05:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?$101.87Jul 28, 05:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?$103.87Jul 28, 05:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$4.46Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$320.00Jul 27, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$711.22Jul 27, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$15.38Jul 27, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$3.23Jul 27, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$84.00Jul 27, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$25.11Jul 27, 04:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$1.06Jul 26, 14:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?$1.2KJul 26, 14:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?$0.00Jul 26, 14:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?$0.00Jul 26, 14:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 26, 14:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%?$0.00Jul 26, 14:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$7.0K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
Jun 1, 13:13 UTC → Jun 1, 13:08 UTC
- BUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$7.0K@72¢Jun 1, 13:08 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
$7.0K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $233.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 10:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.