0x42477970683d4d0a52ec7082fee5d760cc5591c4
0x42477970683d4d0a52ec7082fee5d760cc5591c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
179
Open notional
$17.9K
Total PnL
$-34.1K
Realised
$419.54
Win rate
30%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 179- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
23332 shares @ 75.3¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$7.1K
$-10.5K
- NO
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
2444 shares @ 91.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.2K
$-36.65
- YES
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
68516 shares @ 35.9¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$-23.2K
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
3908 shares @ 33.8¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.0K
$-283.99
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
1657 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$836.89
$-8.63
- NO
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
881 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$788.25
$-4.40
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1437 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$755.07
$-20.83
- NO
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
704 shares @ 75.1¢·now 75.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$531.77
$3.10
- YES
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
1846 shares @ 9.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$175.38
$9.23
- YES
Will TYLOO Qualify to VCT Champs 2026?
286 shares @ 39.3¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$153.16
$40.56
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$11.10Jul 30, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$2.76Jul 30, 00:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?$3.71Jul 29, 23:45 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)$0.00Jul 29, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: VARREL vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega$3.10Jul 29, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLValorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha$5.72Jul 29, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$4.52Jul 29, 20:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.7KJul 29, 20:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 29, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?$1.85Jul 29, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 30?$1.90Jul 29, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?$1.88Jul 29, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Makai Lemon win the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?$2.01Jul 29, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)$45.99Jul 29, 15:49 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group$0.00Jul 29, 15:44 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Tottenham Hotspur 0 - 3 Sydney FC?$46.06Jul 29, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?$3.61Jul 29, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$6.61Jul 29, 14:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$377.8K
Trades
2
Buy share
21%
Window
Jun 8, 22:40 UTC → Jul 8, 13:45 UTC
- BUYWimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic$13.1K@22¢Jul 8, 13:45 UTC
- BUYWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$6.7K@89¢Jun 8, 22:34 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 15 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
60 closed markets, 30% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$13.1K
1 trades
Buy share
21%
Sample
medium
15 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
$189.7K · 50% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $63.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 07:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.