Shoddy-Flash
0x459a402950408b51ebac7f1e53390dbcd2257a07
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-22.19
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
646 shares @ 77.4¢·now 97.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$627.75
$127.75
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
580 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$579.73
$18.24
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
309 shares @ 81.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$294.75
$44.75
- YES
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
417 shares @ 60.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.58
$-210.42
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
24 shares @ 89.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$21.12
$0.12
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 96.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.14
$0.14
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
1 shares @ 83.0¢·now 94.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.14
$0.14
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1 shares @ 95.8¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
3 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$561.49Apr 14, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$1.02Apr 14, 17:48 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$0.00Apr 14, 17:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?$0.00Apr 14, 17:48 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$0.00Apr 14, 17:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?$0.00Apr 14, 17:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?$0.00Apr 14, 17:48 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$0.00Apr 14, 17:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?$0.00Apr 14, 17:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?$561.49Apr 14, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?$505.02Feb 23, 14:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?$503.75Feb 23, 14:11 UTC
- REDEEMJesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM?$1.27Feb 17, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?$195.83Feb 15, 12:01 UTC
- REDEEMNorth Korea missile launch by February 14?$0.00Feb 15, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$300.00Feb 15, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?$300.00Feb 15, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.00Feb 15, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?$1.00Feb 15, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$21.00Feb 15, 11:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $134.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 15:09 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 14, 17:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.