Clean-Death
0x45e856f0023259664606b6c370e82d072b24cc6c
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$5.7K
Total PnL
$-8.9K
Realised
$-20.18
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
2158 shares @ 75.1¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$1.9K
$266.30
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
800 shares @ 91.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$778.00
$50.00
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
600 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$519.00
$9.00
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
500 shares @ 80.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$427.50
$27.50
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
600 shares @ 45.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$363.00
$93.00
- NO
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
400 shares @ 67.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$338.00
$70.00
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
400 shares @ 65.6¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$325.79
$63.20
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
350 shares @ 72.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$316.63
$63.03
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
300 shares @ 71.9¢·now 74.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$222.30
$6.71
- NO
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
315 shares @ 56.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$207.90
$31.45
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$792.00Jul 20, 02:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.1KJul 20, 02:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 8, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $214.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 20:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.