Purple-Trial
0x49929092c94564645683fcabd5649cd2218e9cd4
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$4.4K
Total PnL
$-2.4K
Realised
$-14.01
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
1000 shares @ 86.9¢·now 94.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$948.50
$79.50
- NO
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
830 shares @ 82.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$742.85
$57.65
- NO
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
700 shares @ 81.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$647.45
$75.50
- NO
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
650 shares @ 76.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$588.25
$88.75
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
600 shares @ 85.1¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$557.99
$47.50
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
400 shares @ 90.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$334.00
$-26.00
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
400 shares @ 60.5¢·now 67.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$270.00
$28.00
- YES
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
154 shares @ 70.5¢·now 83.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$128.19
$19.98
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
300 shares @ 28.6¢·now 23.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$71.85
$-14.06
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
800 shares @ 24.4¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.00
$-143.59
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$194.81Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 9, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $310.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.