Yawning-Ocelot
0x4da5b77ece9ca4313f2b2d3c245af6ea36a393ff
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
198
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-659.54
Realised
$-5.72
Win rate
10%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 198- YES
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- MAGIC
Magic vs. Pistons
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- KHAMZAT CHIMAEV
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
257 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.06
- YES
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
174 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.81
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.52Jul 13, 02:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.80Jul 13, 02:38 UTC
- REDEEMSan Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers$14.71Jul 6, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers$5.10Jul 5, 02:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?$1.80Jul 5, 02:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$2.93Jul 5, 02:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?$4.22Jul 5, 02:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$4.80Jul 5, 02:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?$5.64Jul 5, 02:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$5.97Jul 5, 02:20 UTC
- TRADESELLFlávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?$0.25Jul 3, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$0.30Jul 3, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLFlávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?$0.16Jul 3, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.55Jul 3, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? $0.79Jul 3, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?$0.98Jul 3, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026?$0.92Jul 3, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?$1.41Jul 1, 20:50 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?$3.47Jul 1, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?$1.01Jul 1, 19:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $2.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 03:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 02:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.