Grizzled-Geometry
0x4fa5a28cd9e3ecfe93d80c46346deae4d3342380
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$-474.85
Realised
$-27.98
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
619 shares @ 66.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$566.38
$157.84
- AFGHANISTAN
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka
871 shares @ 53.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$431.14
$-30.48
- YES
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?
975 shares @ 81.3¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$165.75
$-626.92
- NO
Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?
304 shares @ 10.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$76.00
$45.60
- NO
Over $800M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
54 shares @ 44.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$34.29
$10.53
- YES
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
29 shares @ 39.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$10.44
$-0.87
- YES
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 85.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.73
$-1.81
- YES
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 71.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$0.03
$-0.68
- YES
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.07
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for January 29 be greater than 2,400,000?$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMOver $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sorry, Baby win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Ass" or "Shit" this week? (March 29)$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMAnother crypto hack over $100m before 2027?$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$419.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club end in a draw?$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMTexas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (W)$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)$894.00Apr 15, 10:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?$102.96Apr 11, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?$27.50Apr 11, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?$154.25Apr 11, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?$92.43Apr 10, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?$93.24Apr 9, 22:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $259.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 23, 18:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.