Knobby-Manufacturing
0x4fd5138a639a09b1be098ed7a3a13e4389a8f4f1
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$175.91
Total PnL
$-276.66
Realised
$-77.72
Win rate
0%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
88 shares @ 78.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$80.94
$11.94
- NO
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
50 shares @ 88.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$48.52
$4.52
- DOWN
UK Government approval Up or Down this week?
50 shares @ 98.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$25.00
$-24.00
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
35 shares @ 52.8¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$21.18
$2.68
- YES
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
50 shares @ 42.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.27
$-21.08
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 15?
1000 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-32.17
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 5?
100 shares @ 49.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-49.51
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
72 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNo-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?$33.54Apr 25, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?$35.45Apr 25, 02:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?$99.90Apr 25, 00:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Apr 25, 00:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$9.99Apr 25, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran coup attempt by June 30?$44.00Apr 25, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?$13.12Apr 25, 00:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$19.97Apr 25, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$17.60Apr 25, 00:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?$0.00Apr 25, 00:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?$100.00Apr 25, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$19.60Apr 25, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$9.90Apr 25, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?$21.35Apr 25, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUK Government approval Up or Down this week?$49.00Apr 25, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?$83.00Apr 21, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$50.00Mar 5, 21:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?$99.99Mar 2, 03:50 UTC
- REDEEMRojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case?$120.00Mar 2, 03:50 UTC
- REDEEMSenator Eichorn guilty of soliciting a child?$120.00Mar 2, 03:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $80.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 20, 02:14 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 25, 09:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.