Jealous-Ocelot
0x592306c26c00c4d9ede9ee341aa39bb2782649cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$19.0K
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-185.47
Win rate
52%
102 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
2829 shares @ 83.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.4K
$82.55
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1192 shares @ 80.2¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$50.92
- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
856 shares @ 95.5¢·now 95.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$814.24
$-3.18
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
770 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$720.41
$3.85
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
632 shares @ 95.9¢·now 95.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$604.87
$-1.02
- NO
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
621 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$565.17
$6.13
- NO
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
617 shares @ 85.9¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$564.50
$34.25
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
484 shares @ 96.4¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$465.95
$-0.94
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
918 shares @ 52.4¢·now 45.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$417.60
$-63.87
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
522 shares @ 75.4¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$404.93
$10.68
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$9.61Aug 5, 05:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$103.99Aug 5, 05:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$18.42Aug 5, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?$7.35Aug 5, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$8.23Aug 5, 05:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$3.13Aug 5, 03:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$12.23Aug 5, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$7.91Aug 5, 02:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$24.28Aug 5, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31?$42.12Aug 5, 02:44 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Aug 5, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?$3.52Aug 5, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?$0.11Aug 5, 02:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$21.95Aug 5, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$9.27Aug 5, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?$12.98Aug 5, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$8.56Aug 5, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$3.44Aug 5, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?$10.41Aug 5, 00:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$7.69Aug 4, 23:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 102 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
102 closed markets, 52% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $9.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 19:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 05:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 102 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.