0x5ac99d7d8023f6b7f10f8b40a087149e3aa9b12d
0x5ac99d7d8023f6b7f10f8b40a087149e3aa9b12d
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$55.91
Total PnL
$-136.66
Realised
$39.74
Win rate
4%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
18 shares @ 28.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$17.86
$12.86
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
273 shares @ 5.5¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.78
$-7.22
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$6.67
$1.67
- YES
Iran Nuke before 2027?
108 shares @ 9.3¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.78
$-5.21
- YES
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
14 shares @ 37.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$4.53
$-0.47
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 43.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.01
$-0.99
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
38 shares @ 13.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.12
$-2.88
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
29 shares @ 17.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.62
$-3.38
- YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
3 shares @ 39.2¢·now 53.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.36
$0.36
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.18
$0.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.35Jul 8, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$1.17Jul 8, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$3.28Jul 8, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?$10.40Jul 8, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.04Jul 7, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.13Jul 6, 09:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$4.88Jul 6, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.04Jul 5, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$1.04Jul 5, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$5.20Jul 5, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.12Jul 5, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.07Jul 5, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$1.06Jul 5, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?$5.31Jul 5, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$4.85Jul 5, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$9.48Jul 5, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$1.04Jul 2, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$5.20Jul 2, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$5.33Jul 2, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.04Jul 2, 05:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $3.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 16:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 05:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.