Alert-Charlatan
0x5de72afd53f4860470ee0f4a11bf0eabddb1540c
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$3.3K
Total PnL
$-788.75
Realised
$25.55
Win rate
75%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
965 shares @ 96.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$964.78
$35.64
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
300 shares @ 68.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$214.51
$10.50
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
200 shares @ 85.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$175.00
$5.00
- NO
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
500 shares @ 33.7¢·now 33.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$165.01
$-3.74
- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
240 shares @ 58.3¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$154.80
$14.82
- YES
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
300 shares @ 49.3¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$144.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
170 shares @ 72.2¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$138.52
$15.73
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
400 shares @ 32.9¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$117.91
$-13.62
- YES
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
751 shares @ 45.7¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$116.43
$-226.65
- YES
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?
110 shares @ 98.7¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$108.68
$0.12
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jun 20, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?$0.00Jun 20, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$0.00Jun 20, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$0.00Jun 20, 05:09 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.85Jun 20, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 20, 00:19 UTC
- REWARD$0.11Jun 20, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$34.50Jun 19, 23:09 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$45.39Jun 19, 23:09 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$9.01Jun 19, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$43.55Jun 19, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?$28.46Jun 19, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?$8.53Jun 19, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$11.75Jun 19, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$158.25Jun 19, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$29.00Jun 19, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$27.12Jun 19, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$1.55Jun 19, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$13.95Jun 19, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$4.00Jun 19, 21:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $47.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 17:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 05:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.