Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,400,000 and 2,700,000 voters?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 731h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $7.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.