0x715728b2d7f43d32d72424846449b500d768e799
0x715728b2d7f43d32d72424846449b500d768e799
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$349.81
Total PnL
$-223.90
Realised
$-14.64
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
40 shares @ 97.8¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$40.31
$0.71
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?
40 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$40.15
$0.55
- YES
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
62 shares @ 24.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.98
$3.10
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
25 shares @ 58.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$16.91
$2.16
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
15 shares @ 95.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$15.28
$0.73
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 85.5¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$15.14
$0.35
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
57 shares @ 26.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.14
$0.29
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
20 shares @ 74.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.10
$0.10
- YES
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
26 shares @ 56.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$14.69
$-0.13
- NO
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
17 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.53
$-0.09
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$7.35Jul 28, 22:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$14.04Jul 28, 05:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?$6.20Jul 28, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?$6.61Jul 28, 01:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?$28.14Jul 28, 00:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 29?$36.21Jul 27, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$14.55Jul 27, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?$14.78Jul 27, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?$7.59Jul 27, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?$7.53Jul 27, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$7.38Jul 27, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$35.74Jul 27, 16:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$37.03Jul 27, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 27?$40.07Jul 27, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?$6.91Jul 27, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?$7.46Jul 27, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$40.43Jul 27, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$40.10Jul 27, 13:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill SE Palmeiras win on 2026-07-26?$40.82Jul 27, 03:32 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: CF Monterrey (-1.5)$40.20Jul 27, 03:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $23.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 10:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.