0x71e11e0fc20a2adf27026fbf8674b38f8ff945f0
0x71e11e0fc20a2adf27026fbf8674b38f8ff945f0
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
108
Open notional
$25.2K
Total PnL
$-30.5K
Realised
$292.62
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 108- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
7200 shares @ 88.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$7.0K
$680.40
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
18000 shares @ 52.8¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.5K
$-4.0K
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
3600 shares @ 90.8¢·now 96.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.5K
$213.30
- NO
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
3344 shares @ 36.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.3K
$2.1K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1800 shares @ 66.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$225.00
- NO
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
1278 shares @ 70.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$256.55
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1019 shares @ 12.3¢·now 92.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$945.71
$820.33
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
4521 shares @ 27.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$632.94
$-587.63
- YES
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
2776 shares @ 75.0¢·now 22.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$616.27
$-1.5K
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1800 shares @ 33.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$387.00
$-207.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$2.70Jul 27, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$2.70Jul 27, 04:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$4.23Jul 26, 18:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?$66.21Jul 22, 12:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$2.31Jul 18, 19:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$1.51Jul 15, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$3.77Jul 15, 00:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $7.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.