Incredible-Source
0x744eb7bc29b1fe14cd5dc4f58b8637f919824c43
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$51.11
Total PnL
$-871.00
Realised
$-806.33
Win rate
11%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
58 shares @ 32.3¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.72
$-5.12
- YES
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
8 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$7.92
$0.02
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
6 shares @ 92.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$6.22
$0.45
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
3 shares @ 74.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.56
$0.18
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.08
$0.08
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
2 shares @ 94.8¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.07
$0.07
- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2 shares @ 94.7¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.07
$0.07
- NO
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.98
$-0.02
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
9 shares @ 31.3¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.89
$-0.99
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$16.54Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWorld Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?$4.39Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.62Jul 4, 15:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?$2.34Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?$3.23Jul 1, 14:41 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$12.11Jul 1, 14:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?$5.18Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?$2.07Jul 1, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$1.16Jul 1, 06:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?$4.50Jul 1, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by June 30?$19.31Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMNetanyahu out by June 30?$20.43Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Syria security agreement by June 30?$1.20Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?$4.19Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?$3.12Jul 1, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?$2.06Jul 1, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June?$3.29Jun 30, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$1.17Jun 30, 22:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$1.28Jun 25, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$2.13Jun 19, 04:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $1.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 21:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.