Eager-Research
0x74744886d1081ab236510e04c5b617b914a3cef7
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
117
Open notional
$4.95
Total PnL
$-288.94
Realised
$-11.41
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 117- NO
Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?
5 shares @ 37.0¢·now 66.4¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$3.59
$1.59
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in three or fewer nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
10 shares @ 21.0¢·now 13.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.36
$-0.74
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?
138 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-14.16
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Delaware in 2026?
125 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.38
- NO
Will Microsoft (MSFT) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of March 2?
82 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?
43 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-6.14
- YES
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on February 27, 2026?
40 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.02
- YES
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
35 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.03
- NO
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
30 shares @ 20.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.12
- NO
Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
29 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.17
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the CT-05 House seat?$0.36Jul 22, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?$2.23Jul 9, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?$6.12Jul 9, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?$8.55Jul 9, 02:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$5.27Jul 9, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?$7.70Jul 9, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$7.70Jul 9, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?$11.63Jul 9, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$12.50Jul 9, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$12.50Jul 9, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$14.41Jul 9, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026?$16.53Jul 9, 02:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$2.08Apr 24, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$2.13Apr 19, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$2.06Apr 19, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$2.13Apr 19, 18:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?$10.00Apr 18, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$2.09Apr 18, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?$5.27Apr 15, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?$2.00Apr 14, 12:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $2.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 22:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 13:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.