Nimble-Essay
0x81de0770551ca28dc0dc7fa148406d40bdfc20d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
144
Open notional
$305.74
Total PnL
$-514.48
Realised
$-70.73
Win rate
29%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 144- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
109 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.92
$-1.63
- YES
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
25 shares @ 98.4¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$24.61
$0.35
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
26 shares @ 67.4¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$17.52
$-0.23
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
54 shares @ 19.2¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.01
$-0.40
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
27 shares @ 34.8¢·now 33.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.97
$-0.50
- YES
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
39 shares @ 31.9¢·now 22.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.49
$-3.81
- NO
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
8 shares @ 92.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$8.04
$0.44
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
31 shares @ 27.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$7.77
$-0.61
- YES
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
8 shares @ 86.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.09
$-1.03
- NO
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?
6 shares @ 97.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.68
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?$4.97Jul 22, 20:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026?$5.09Jul 22, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026?$4.95Jul 22, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?$2.57Jul 22, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?$5.06Jul 22, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?$5.01Jul 22, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$27.72Jul 22, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$47.77Jul 22, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$35.64Jul 22, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$53.46Jul 22, 02:09 UTC
- TRADESELLPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?$0.44Jul 21, 21:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$30.78Jul 21, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$46.20Jul 21, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$27.12Jul 21, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$28.75Jul 21, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.92Jul 21, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$0.36Jul 21, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?$0.09Jul 21, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?$4.80Jul 21, 21:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?$0.72Jul 21, 21:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $18.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 21:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 20:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.