Insidious-Reform
0x83953068f45384c04196b14a0a6171ac896bbd54
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
34
Open notional
$47.81
Total PnL
$-65.48
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
51 shares @ 39.3¢·now 25.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$13.19
$-6.81
- NO
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
30 shares @ 18.2¢·now 27.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$8.00
$2.60
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
6 shares @ 85.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$5.67
$0.57
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
8 shares @ 62.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.99
$-1.01
- NO
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?
13 shares @ 16.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$3.94
$1.94
- YES
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.50
$0.50
- YES
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
4 shares @ 85.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$3.05
$0.07
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?
2 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$2.13
$1.17
- YES
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
212 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.85
$-2.15
- YES
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
45 shares @ 8.8¢·now 1.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.80
$-3.20
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.63May 4, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.63Apr 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?$1.89Apr 28, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?$0.33Apr 28, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?$0.02Apr 28, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$1.00Apr 27, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by April 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 27, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?$0.05Apr 27, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?$0.15Apr 27, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?$0.03Apr 27, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?$2.40Apr 27, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Apr 27, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$3.00Apr 27, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.50Apr 27, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$1.03Apr 27, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?$1.02Apr 26, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$5.10Apr 26, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?$0.55Apr 26, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$2.40Apr 26, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$1.90Apr 26, 01:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 25, 22:58 UTC
- Last active
- May 4, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.