Flaky-Cycle
0x869719c3955d24803a68f8fbc5247ed889594165
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$790.12
Total PnL
$793.30
Realised
$1.5K
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?
354 shares @ 82.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$354.00
$63.37
- NO
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
189 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$189.00
$0.19
- NO
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026
211 shares @ 81.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$161.41
$-9.49
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
233 shares @ 42.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$57.09
$-40.77
- YES
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
54 shares @ 75.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.20
$-24.30
- YES
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
12 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.00
$8.40
- YES
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
1 shares @ 81.9¢·now 41.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.42
$-0.40
- OVER
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5
525 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-126.00
- YES
Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
328 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-144.32
- YES
Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
314 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-194.68
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?$54.00Apr 27, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?$3.50Apr 27, 10:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Trump Turnberry" in April?$457.33Apr 27, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Trump Turnberry" in April?$413.25Apr 23, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?$119.60Apr 23, 07:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$146.04Apr 11, 18:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$20.90Apr 11, 18:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$9.40Apr 11, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the number of US flights delayed on April 6 be between 6,000 and 6,500?$909.05Apr 11, 07:35 UTC
- TRADESELLMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?$169.56Apr 11, 07:28 UTC
- TRADESELLMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?$36.18Apr 11, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUS bank failure by December 31?$151.04Apr 11, 06:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$31.92Apr 11, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS bank failure by December 31?$104.40Apr 11, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS bank failure by December 31?$36.54Apr 11, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS bank failure by December 31?$7.54Apr 11, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?$204.39Apr 11, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?$1.35Apr 11, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$29.64Apr 11, 00:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$279.37Apr 9, 22:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $170.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 06:34 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 10:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.