Expensive-Thinking
0x8a54ad9cbfdf8fd6a74a274615571ad8698e89a5
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-73.08
Realised
$1.10
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
1224 shares @ 82.8¢·now 82.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.0K
$-3.52
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
139 shares @ 88.6¢·now 76.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$106.09
$-16.76
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
159 shares @ 63.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$76.99
$-23.02
- YES
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
122 shares @ 41.1¢·now 21.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$25.57
$-24.43
- YES
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$11.75
$1.75
- YES
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
102 shares @ 9.8¢·now 1.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.79
$-8.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?$123.59Jun 11, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$123.19Jun 11, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?$485.04Jun 9, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?$412.04Jun 9, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$100.85Jun 8, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$74.03May 13, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$101.48May 7, 10:52 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$289.88May 4, 11:17 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?$0.00May 2, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$0.00May 2, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$10.39Apr 30, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$261.11Apr 30, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$438.66Apr 28, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$50.00Apr 27, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$10.00Apr 27, 01:40 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?$498.66Apr 27, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$183.77Apr 15, 10:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$183.78Apr 15, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$123.74Apr 14, 02:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$123.73Apr 14, 02:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $118.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 2, 23:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 11, 13:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.