Pessimistic-Tube
0x904c33389b909c0a8763b9393f45ec50ae622634
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$142.78
Total PnL
$-13.21
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
111 shares @ 27.1¢·now 33.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$37.14
$7.14
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
182 shares @ 11.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.27
$-2.73
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
583 shares @ 3.4¢·now 2.4¢·exp May 15, 2026$13.71
$-6.29
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1429 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$9.29
$-0.71
- NO
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?
48 shares @ 20.9¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$9.07
$-0.93
- YES
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
50 shares @ 12.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.75
$2.75
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
101 shares @ 9.9¢·now 7.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.32
$-2.68
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$6.79
$1.79
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
455 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$6.14
$1.14
- YES
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
25 shares @ 19.8¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.18
$0.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?$10.40May 16, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$15.58May 16, 08:03 UTC
- REDEEMJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$89.95May 16, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$4.16May 15, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$5.19May 15, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$5.19May 15, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$5.19May 15, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?$0.00May 15, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$5.16May 15, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$0.00May 14, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$0.00May 14, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$16.67May 14, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$1.04May 14, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?$1.04May 14, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?$5.00May 13, 20:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?$0.00May 13, 17:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?$0.00May 13, 17:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $10.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 15:56 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 19:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".