Worse-Downturn
0x929a8eb9be3dc9fa54970f10b8195766f1095ab4
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$91.55
Total PnL
$-7.66
Realised
$-7.25
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark?
54 shares @ 92.9¢·now 85.1¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$45.79
$-4.21
- NO
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
102 shares @ 32.3¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$39.88
$6.87
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
3 shares @ 85.1¢·now 82.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.47
$-0.09
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
47 shares @ 4.3¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.84
$-0.16
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
22 shares @ 4.6¢·now 4.7¢·exp May 24, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
1 shares @ 14.5¢·now 7.3¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.07
$-0.07
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
255 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$19.39May 18, 09:10 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$39.22May 18, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$20.11May 18, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$40.78May 18, 07:46 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$54.21May 18, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$10.27May 18, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$50.21May 18, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$20.54May 18, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$59.12May 18, 02:13 UTC
- REDEEMRayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5$0.00May 18, 00:43 UTC
- REDEEMAthletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5$0.00May 18, 00:43 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$0.00May 18, 00:43 UTC
- REDEEMRayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5$5.95May 18, 00:43 UTC
- REDEEMAthletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5$6.82May 18, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$20.23May 17, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$10.11May 17, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$30.34May 17, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$3.09May 17, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYRayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5$5.02May 17, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYAthletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5$5.04May 17, 18:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $26.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 12:02 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 09:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".