0x9b3f3606cf5dce0bec8101b6c4d089caa8060fa5
0x9b3f3606cf5dce0bec8101b6c4d089caa8060fa5
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
148
Open notional
$950.77
Total PnL
$-410.93
Realised
$65.26
Win rate
71%
56 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 148- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
49 shares @ 71.7¢·now 73.4¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$36.32
$0.82
- NO
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
181 shares @ 16.5¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$29.83
$-0.05
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
70 shares @ 33.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.65
$4.55
- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
90 shares @ 30.2¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$27.45
$0.30
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
80 shares @ 28.2¢·now 33.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.84
$4.28
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
111 shares @ 25.1¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.03
$-1.82
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
100 shares @ 29.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$24.50
$-4.85
- YES
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
69 shares @ 34.0¢·now 35.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.37
$0.81
- NO
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
30 shares @ 79.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.15
$0.45
- YES
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
155 shares @ 17.5¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.02
$-3.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?$21.88Jul 29, 03:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $500M one day after launch?$10.53Jul 28, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $500M one day after launch?$3.86Jul 28, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $500M one day after launch?$1.33Jul 28, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$13.38Jul 28, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$11.15Jul 28, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$32.20Jul 28, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $500M one day after launch?$8.20Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$27.38Jul 28, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?$24.35Jul 28, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$13.73Jul 28, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$3.58Jul 28, 00:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$23.10Jul 27, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$4.35Jul 27, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$2.64Jul 27, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$1.45Jul 27, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$8.76Jul 27, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$4.96Jul 27, 15:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
78/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 56 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
56 closed markets, 71% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $10.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 16:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 03:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 56 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.