Spotted-Yard
0x9ebcf1134ab3dcee18eee1cd7299f56c40bb35c2
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$404.96
Total PnL
$-15.38
Realised
$8.67
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
58 shares @ 86.4¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.11
$-4.88
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
48 shares @ 84.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$40.72
$0.71
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
66 shares @ 61.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$39.67
$-0.33
- YES
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
37 shares @ 81.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$34.63
$4.63
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
37 shares @ 80.3¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.55
$1.55
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
34 shares @ 89.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$30.17
$0.17
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
51 shares @ 59.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$30.00
$0.00
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
53 shares @ 57.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$29.73
$-0.27
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
40 shares @ 75.1¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$28.98
$-1.02
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
33 shares @ 90.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$28.83
$-1.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$30.61Jul 23, 12:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?$30.13Jul 22, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$40.62Jul 22, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$30.37Jul 22, 14:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- TRADESELLClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$22.38Jul 21, 16:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$30.00Jul 20, 11:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$61.96Jul 18, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$30.06Jul 18, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$30.06Jul 18, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?$20.27Jul 18, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$22.56Jul 18, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$27.11Jul 18, 05:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYViktor Orbán arrested by December 31?$50.27Jul 17, 12:59 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$5.62Jul 17, 12:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $165.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 14:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 12:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.