Ecstatic-Longitude
0xa57966df81fac0d869e32336c42bca34e27aaad0
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$4.2K
Total PnL
$-94.58
Realised
$410.28
Win rate
94%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
5147 shares @ 42.3¢·now 36.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.9K
$-298.51
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
618 shares @ 82.4¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$531.21
$21.97
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
650 shares @ 57.1¢·now 46.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$301.92
$-69.07
- YES
Iran successfully targets shipping by September 30, 2026?
300 shares @ 87.3¢·now 85.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$256.50
$-5.50
- NO
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
216 shares @ 84.9¢·now 88.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$190.01
$6.76
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
800 shares @ 42.2¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$179.98
$-157.98
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
200 shares @ 76.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$162.98
$10.95
- YES
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
55093 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$137.73
$-6.45
- YES
Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by December 31?
161 shares @ 64.6¢·now 82.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$132.26
$28.19
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
100 shares @ 86.0¢·now 94.7¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$94.65
$8.69
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping by September 30, 2026?$86.00Aug 4, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$41.96Aug 4, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August 2026?$5.15Aug 4, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping by September 30, 2026?$167.20Aug 4, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping by September 30, 2026?$8.80Aug 4, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$46.00Aug 4, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$0.01Aug 4, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$54.00Aug 4, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$23.20Aug 4, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$160.01Aug 4, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$0.03Aug 4, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.12Aug 4, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$12.40Aug 4, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$156.00Aug 4, 03:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?$18.24Aug 4, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?$18.00Aug 4, 00:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.14Aug 4, 00:03 UTC
- REWARD$1.75Aug 4, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.13Aug 3, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.17Aug 3, 23:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $18.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 00:23 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 16:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.