Capital-Refectory
0xa7a3d4efc03aab43fc0b05d906ae98d9aed67739
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
125
Open notional
$8.3K
Total PnL
$-8.7K
Realised
$355.19
Win rate
62%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 125- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
2944 shares @ 75.5¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.4K
$132.68
- YES
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
1527 shares @ 63.3¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.2K
$239.33
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
1212 shares @ 46.6¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$897.18
$332.67
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
1700 shares @ 60.3¢·now 37.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$628.99
$-396.89
- NO
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
807 shares @ 68.7¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$621.66
$67.22
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
500 shares @ 47.4¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$417.42
$180.17
- YES
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
471 shares @ 63.6¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$416.86
$117.37
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
4000 shares @ 10.4¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$379.98
$-35.91
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
300 shares @ 85.3¢·now 76.4¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$229.35
$-26.65
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1100 shares @ 17.5¢·now 16.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$176.55
$-15.65
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$85.52Jun 13, 11:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$3.95Jun 13, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$52.00Jun 13, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$5.00Jun 13, 11:41 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.91Jun 13, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jun 13, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.17Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?$710.00Jun 12, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?$100.00Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?$339.99Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$50.00Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?$150.00Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$100.00Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$140.00Jun 12, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?$39.00Jun 12, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?$39.50Jun 12, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?$40.00Jun 12, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$50.00Jun 12, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$32.87Jun 12, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$5.03Jun 12, 16:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $50.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 13:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 11:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.