0xaa06f6e8d4d0cce05d521fbca234de77c0af1e0f
0xaa06f6e8d4d0cce05d521fbca234de77c0af1e0f
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
75
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-208.42
Realised
$3.97
Win rate
56%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 75- YES
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?
284 shares @ 88.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2027$269.89
$19.89
- YES
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
52734 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$263.67
$8.81
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6654 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$169.01
$-24.18
- YES
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1084 shares @ 13.8¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$103.02
$-46.64
- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
7480 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$63.58
$3.74
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
100 shares @ 57.4¢·now 58.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$58.48
$1.06
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
75 shares @ 56.2¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.92
$6.92
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
60 shares @ 75.6¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.58
$-0.07
- YES
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
18138 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.35
$-91.16
- YES
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?
243 shares @ 43.2¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$37.64
$-67.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$9.48Jul 29, 15:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$9.35Jul 29, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$5.00Jul 29, 14:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.15Jul 29, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$4.10Jul 29, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$3.10Jul 29, 13:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$1.01Jul 29, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$1.56Jul 29, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$3.01Jul 29, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.15Jul 29, 08:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$9.72Jul 29, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$1.13Jul 29, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMJay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by December 31?$1.10Jul 29, 02:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYJay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by December 31?$1.10Jul 28, 23:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$0.45Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$0.46Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$0.18Jul 28, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$3.37Jul 28, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.00Jul 28, 22:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $4.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 03:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 15:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.