0xab6a4f216639cfd95db8f714d768f203a9b5735a
0xab6a4f216639cfd95db8f714d768f203a9b5735a
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-27.10
Realised
$-51.17
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
222 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$221.50
$28.80
- NO
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
250 shares @ 76.3¢·now 88.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$220.97
$30.40
- NO
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?
168 shares @ 79.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$168.37
$34.60
- NO
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
168 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$167.86
$28.54
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
86 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$85.90
$14.60
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
72 shares @ 71.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$71.80
$20.27
- NO
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
51 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$50.55
$5.56
- YES
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 18.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$50.31
$41.16
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
117 shares @ 79.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-92.89
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
117 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-55.04
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Norway win Eurovision 2026?$0.00Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?$0.00Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?$182.02Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill voter turnout be 68–71% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?$0.00Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?$0.00Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$0.00Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?$0.00Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$161.75Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?$58.82Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?$195.08Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$0.00Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?$179.86Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit China by May 31?$269.72Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$0.00Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?$0.00Jun 3, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$0.00Jun 3, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?$72.63Jun 3, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$291.01Jun 3, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 3, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$0.00Jun 3, 06:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $26.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 25, 11:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 3, 06:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.