Smug-Effacement
0xaf1373e45727aeb1b13f677303f173d053da72ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$58.07
Total PnL
$-167.66
Realised
$3.94
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- YES
Will Reliance Industries Ltd be the largest Indian company?
7 shares @ 71.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.93
$-0.04
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 70.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.90
$-2.10
- NO
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 75.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.67
$-0.07
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 70.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.40
$-0.10
- YES
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.33
$0.82
- NO
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 65.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.33
$0.07
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 62.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.20
$-3.00
- YES
Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.97
$0.47
- YES
Will Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by December 31?
5 shares @ 54.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.95
$0.25
- YES
Will Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by September 30?
5 shares @ 40.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.65
$0.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Jio Platforms IPO by August 31, 2026?$2.69Jul 22, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jio Platforms IPO by September 30, 2026?$2.40Jul 22, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jio Platforms IPO by December 31, 2026?$5.30Jul 22, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reliance Industries Ltd be the largest Indian company?$5.03Jul 22, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by December 31?$2.75Jul 22, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by September 30?$2.05Jul 22, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$2.40Jul 22, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?$2.50Jul 15, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?$2.50Jul 15, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pump.fun dip to $0.0010 by December 31, 2026?$2.50Jul 14, 22:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?$3.43Jul 7, 02:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lighter reach $3 before 2027?$2.26Jul 3, 10:57 UTC
- TRADESELLOpensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?$4.26Jul 3, 10:57 UTC
- TRADESELLOpensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?$5.58Jul 3, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?$2.50Jul 2, 14:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dogecoin dip to $0.06 by December 31, 2026?$3.27Jul 2, 04:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?$3.55Jun 29, 08:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June?$4.02Jun 26, 05:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June?$4.60Jun 26, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?$2.50Jun 26, 04:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 14:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 02:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.