Reliable-Airman
0xb04a46908c7cd7e62acbbbf08ec6e395336bacfc
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
122
Open notional
$7.2K
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$2.4K
Win rate
53%
83 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 122- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
1426 shares @ 52.9¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$720.20
$-34.83
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
823 shares @ 76.7¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$629.51
$-1.55
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
605 shares @ 85.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$559.25
$45.40
- NO
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
1572 shares @ 41.6¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$558.05
$-96.46
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
943 shares @ 61.3¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$542.35
$-36.30
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
470 shares @ 85.8¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$397.54
$-5.93
- NO
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
380 shares @ 97.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$379.83
$7.80
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
760 shares @ 31.9¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$361.13
$118.66
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
240 shares @ 86.9¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$236.16
$27.71
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
240 shares @ 87.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$219.61
$10.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$6.36Jul 29, 02:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$9.22Jul 28, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$7.64Jul 28, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$22.10Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$18.54Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$19.20Jul 28, 22:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.16Jul 28, 21:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$12.68Jul 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$68.93Jul 28, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$37.61Jul 28, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$68.93Jul 28, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.36Jul 28, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?$6.65Jul 28, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.10Jul 28, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$97.97Jul 28, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$26.10Jul 28, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$206.74Jul 28, 15:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$45.69Jul 28, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$1.16Jul 28, 15:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 83 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
83 closed markets, 53% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $28.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 83 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.