Key-Reality
0xb2141c0aeddfa153dde8eaf834f44374553fa6aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$248.13
Total PnL
$168.21
Realised
$166.35
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026?
163 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$163.00
$61.94
- YES
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
358 shares @ 35.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$84.13
$-41.17
- NO
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$1.00
$0.20
- YES
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
91 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-19.11
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?$0.00Jun 18, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill FaZe make a roster move before May?$49.00Jun 18, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethena dip to $0.08 by December 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMGPT ads by March 31?$0.00Jun 18, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?$301.00Jun 18, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Medline's market cap be between $35B and $45B at market close on IPO day?$0.00Jun 18, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 14, 6PM ET$0.00Jun 18, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?$0.00Jun 18, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 160 and 189 seats?$0.00Jun 18, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLKanye blocked from entering another country by June 30?$273.90Apr 27, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYKanye blocked from entering another country by June 30?$246.51Apr 23, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026?$131.25Apr 21, 10:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Brooklyn Nets have the worst record in the NBA?$2.00Apr 15, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMEast Texas A&M Lions vs. Lamar Cardinals$83.00Apr 15, 10:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?$162.26Apr 12, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?$451.26Apr 12, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?$172.90Apr 10, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?$125.30Apr 10, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?$444.72Apr 10, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLFed emergency rate cut before 2027?$8.60Apr 9, 23:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $223.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 12:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 00:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.