Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?
Probability
14¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$435.91
Liquidity
$1.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 14¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2026h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2026.1h
- 13:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2026h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:55PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 14¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 15¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 15¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 15¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 15¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 15¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 16¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 19¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 19¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 17¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 15¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 15¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 15¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 15¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 15¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 15¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 27¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
As of market creation, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to end on July 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Claudio Fabián Tapia ceases to be President of the Argentine Football Association (AFA) for any length of time between this market's creation and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Tapia's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the AFA and/or Claudio Fabián Tapia; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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