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PoliticsExpires Jul 19, 2026

Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?

Probability

14¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-2.0pp

24h Vol

$435.91

Liquidity

$1.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

-12.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:55
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 2026h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 9.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 2026.1h

    LOW
  • 13:55Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 2026h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:55Price

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -11.5pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -11.5pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -11.5pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -11.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

As of market creation, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to end on July 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Claudio Fabián Tapia ceases to be President of the Argentine Football Association (AFA) for any length of time between this market's creation and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Tapia's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the AFA and/or Claudio Fabián Tapia; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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