0xbcd75a292410461f030e923280a4b16b940b5c78
0xbcd75a292410461f030e923280a4b16b940b5c78
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$36.36
Total PnL
$-1.51
Realised
$0.52
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
8 shares @ 79.8¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.20
$0.20
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 97.7¢·now 97.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.98
$-0.02
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.86
$-0.14
- NO
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
6 shares @ 85.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$4.85
$-0.15
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?
2 shares @ 86.8¢·now 92.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.12
$0.12
- NO
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.18
$0.18
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
3 shares @ 64.7¢·now 35.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.10
$-0.90
- NO
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
1 shares @ 76.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.07
$0.07
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.04
$0.04
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?$2.001d ago
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?$1.001d ago
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?$1.001d ago
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$1.001d ago
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$1.001d ago
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$1.141d ago
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?$1.251d ago
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$1.251d ago
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?$1.411d ago
- REDEEMWill Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?$2.011d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?$1.004d ago
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$0.008d ago
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?$1.088d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?$1.0010d ago
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$1.0010d ago
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$5.0013d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$1.0013d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?$1.0013d ago
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?$1.2313d ago
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$1.1516d ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $1.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 31d ago
- Last active
- 1d ago
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".