GeopoliticsExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

Probability

1h

-0.8pp

24h

-2.8pp

24h Vol

$92.8K

Liquidity

$125.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

-31.9pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 3¢; -0.8pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 102h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 102.1h

    LOW
  • 17:53Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 102h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -32.0pp at 2d ago (to 6¢).

Show all 33 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · -8.3pp → 3¢
  • 15:00 · -5.7pp → 5¢
  • 14:00 · -6.8pp → 5¢
  • 12:00 · -8.9pp → 6¢
  • 11:00 · -8.3pp → 6¢
  • 09:00 · -10.3pp → 6¢
  • 08:00 · -8.3pp → 7¢
  • 06:00 · -8.1pp → 6¢
  • 05:00 · -8.9pp → 6¢
  • 03:00 · -8.8pp → 5¢
  • 02:00 · -9.4pp → 5¢
  • 00:00 · -6.9pp → 6¢
  • 23:00 · -5.2pp → 7¢
  • 21:00 · -6.3pp → 6¢
  • 20:00 · -6.6pp → 6¢
  • 18:00 · -10.4pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -13.0pp → 5¢
  • 1d ago · -10.8pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -11.9pp → 5¢
  • 1d ago · -7.0pp → 11¢
  • 1d ago · -14.9pp → 4¢
  • 1d ago · -14.6pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -14.8pp → 5¢
  • 2d ago · -18.4pp → 6¢
  • 2d ago · -32.0pp → 6¢
  • 2d ago · -31.9pp → 6¢
  • 2d ago · -31.1pp → 6¢
  • 2d ago · -25.4pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -27.9pp → 6¢
  • 2d ago · -24.8pp → 6¢
  • 2d ago · -27.1pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -18.1pp → 10¢
  • 2d ago · -24.8pp → 10¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
US governmentOfficial government sourceextracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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