Arctic-Morbidity
0xbd59e8271cd75fa788efd3d14f57b995788373cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
35
Open notional
$78.79
Total PnL
$-18.21
Realised
$0.36
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
24 shares @ 46.1¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.93
$3.93
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
12 shares @ 91.3¢·now 92.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.16
$0.16
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
12 shares @ 85.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.65
$0.65
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
8 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$7.79
$1.79
- NO
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
6 shares @ 89.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.22
$0.22
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
6 shares @ 90.5¢·now 93.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.17
$0.17
- NO
Prince Andrew charged by March 31?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.00
$0.65
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
2 shares @ 52.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$1.89
$0.89
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?
2 shares @ 60.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$1.67
$0.67
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
2 shares @ 64.9¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.52
$0.52
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$0.00Mar 26, 19:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$0.00Mar 26, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$1.61Mar 26, 19:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$1.22Mar 26, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$10.00Mar 26, 19:23 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?$1.04Mar 18, 20:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?$1.11Mar 18, 20:49 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by March 13?$1.12Mar 18, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum flipped in 2026?$1.00Mar 14, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS military draft authorized in 2026?$1.00Mar 14, 14:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?$0.00Mar 14, 13:12 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by December 31?$1.22Mar 14, 13:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?$1.30Mar 14, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by June 30?$1.00Mar 14, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$1.00Mar 14, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?$1.00Mar 14, 12:00 UTC
- REDEEMNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$1.06Mar 13, 18:05 UTC
- REDEEMNuclear weapon detonation by June 30?$1.15Mar 13, 18:05 UTC
- REDEEMNuclear weapon detonation by December 31?$31.48Mar 13, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$1.00Mar 10, 18:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $1.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 7, 20:32 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 26, 19:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.