0xc0452fc28da16838ec385f0387f8911a306a95b2
0xc0452fc28da16838ec385f0387f8911a306a95b2
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$2.25
Total PnL
$-7.24
Realised
$4.51
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
1 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.25
$0.21
- NO
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$1.00
$0.07
- CELINE NAEF
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana
19 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?
11 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.72
- NO
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.32
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$4.65Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$5.00Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?$4.23Jul 22, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 20, 15:15 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$4.65Jul 6, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$5.00Jul 5, 14:26 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$4.59Jul 2, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$5.00Jul 2, 14:45 UTC
- TRADESELLEvo Morales arrested by June 30?$1.38Jun 28, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLEvo Morales arrested by June 30?$5.36Jun 28, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$5.76Jun 28, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?$10.81Jun 27, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Borova by June 30?$9.48Jun 26, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 15?$4.65Jun 26, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 15?$5.00Jun 26, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?$3.13Jun 25, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?$5.57Jun 25, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?$5.91Jun 25, 04:41 UTC
- TRADESELLKash Patel out by June 30?$5.38Jun 24, 22:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?$0.43Jun 24, 15:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 21:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.