Reasonable-Experience
0xc04cc3a44eeea675c5daec69f2b3169dd39544ff
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$790.81
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$113.11
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- CLEMSON TIGERS
Xavier Musketeers vs. Clemson Tigers
813 shares @ 89.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$406.50
$-317.07
- MIAMI MARLINS
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
317 shares @ 49.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$158.50
$3.17
- JACKSONVILLE STATE GAMECOCKS
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
131 shares @ 84.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$131.00
$19.78
- YES
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?
335 shares @ 19.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$48.57
$-15.08
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
153 shares @ 40.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$40.55
$-20.65
- NO
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 24.1¢·now 70.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.40
$2.23
- NO
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
3 shares @ 65.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.29
$0.34
- YES
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
1 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- YES
Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in March?
890 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-98.79
- MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
795 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-120.05
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?$0.22Apr 27, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during King Charles visit?$581.64Apr 27, 09:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?$238.93Apr 27, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?$490.60Apr 27, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during King Charles visit?$534.48Apr 23, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?$447.88Apr 23, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?$235.87Apr 23, 09:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill North West release an album by December 31?$629.28Apr 21, 08:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?$57.60Apr 12, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?$864.32Apr 12, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?$109.62Apr 11, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?$96.86Apr 11, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYSt. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins$155.33Apr 11, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?$48.60Apr 11, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?$852.64Apr 11, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?$15.96Apr 10, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?$47.69Apr 10, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?$260.28Apr 9, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$99.17Apr 9, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?$76.00Apr 9, 12:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $275.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 22, 01:43 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 10:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.