Polite-Belief
0xc33d05041c15570829f6a28195dba8538df41b02
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$24.7K
Total PnL
$2.4K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
18320 shares @ 88.4¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$17.5K
$1.3K
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
5148 shares @ 30.9¢·now 70.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.6K
$2.0K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2500 shares @ 65.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$87.50
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
8950 shares @ 17.9¢·now 7.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$671.25
$-930.23
- NO
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
800 shares @ 77.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$612.00
$-4.00
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
1000 shares @ 52.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$545.00
$25.10
- PISTONS
Spread: Pistons (-14.5)
100 shares @ 22.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp May 18, 2026$21.50
$-0.50
- NO
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
23 shares @ 69.5¢·now 72.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.85
$0.64
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
1000 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$87.81May 17, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$3.85May 17, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$11.55May 17, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$512.79May 17, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Pistons (-14.5)$22.51May 17, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$16.41May 17, 15:03 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.13May 16, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.1KMay 15, 17:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.1KMay 15, 17:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$996.88May 15, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$36.57May 15, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$106.04May 15, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$23.61May 15, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$43.88May 15, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$220.00May 15, 11:29 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$0.00May 15, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$0.00May 15, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMEpstein suicide note released by May 8?$0.00May 15, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$63.90May 15, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$7.10May 15, 06:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $187.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 4, 01:14 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 17:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".