Relay FDV above $900M one day after launch?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$11.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14777.7h
- 11:20SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14778h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).