Kindly-Eurocentrism
0xce251291481c79fd0cd348d09af3216a5c9d4e7d
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$79.22
Total PnL
$114.16
Realised
$169.45
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?
166 shares @ 15.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$41.50
$16.60
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
181 shares @ 32.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$18.10
$-39.82
- YES
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 74.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.90
$-28.50
- YES
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
8 shares @ 43.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.56
$-1.88
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$0.95
$0.06
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
1 shares @ 37.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.67
$0.30
- YES
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 41.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.48
$0.07
- YES
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $24B?
1 shares @ 38.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.06
$-0.32
- NO
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?$0.27Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chris Shula be the next Giants Head Coach?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill KongBTC win the Defi App trading competition?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 34% and 36%?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMThailand strikes Cambodia by December 31?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine strike in Russia on 26 November 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Cocaine" this week? (February 15)$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Zootopia 2" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMHarmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill TheDev win the Defi App trading competition?$0.00Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.