Thin-Legitimacy
0xd4949ff6934f1449e9d2a2f951349bf46aa88216
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$58.66
Total PnL
$-3.35
Realised
$0.21
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
38 shares @ 53.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$27.17
$7.03
- NO
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30?
10 shares @ 61.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.40
$2.30
- NO
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
10 shares @ 71.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$7.75
$0.65
- NO
Will Trump say "Cookie" this week?
5 shares @ 60.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$3.85
$0.85
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
4 shares @ 82.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.20
$0.20
- NO
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?
5 shares @ 54.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp May 24, 2026$2.07
$-0.63
- NO
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" this week?
5 shares @ 35.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$1.65
$-0.10
- NO
Will Trump say "Cuba" this week?
5 shares @ 30.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$1.65
$0.15
- NO
Will Trump say "Saudi Arabia" this week?
5 shares @ 30.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp May 24, 2026$1.27
$-0.23
- NO
Will Trump say "Xi" this week?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.93
$-0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "China" this week?$0.11May 17, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Cookie" this week?$1.50May 17, 03:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" this week?$1.75May 17, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Saudi Arabia" this week?$1.50May 17, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Xi" this week?$0.75May 17, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Xi" this week?$0.25May 17, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Cookie" this week?$1.50May 17, 02:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Cuba" this week?$1.50May 17, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?$2.75May 17, 01:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$9.99May 17, 00:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$9.97May 17, 00:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$22.98May 17, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$21.79May 16, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?$9.90May 16, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$9.98May 16, 19:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Six Seven" this week?$0.00May 13, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Television" or "TV" this week?$1.00May 4, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" this week?$7.00May 3, 07:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026$10.00May 2, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$20.14May 1, 16:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $5.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 20, 06:18 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 04:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".