Useless-Embarrassment
0xd5fa614088bbd1f7bcc452e5d06193764548f3f8
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$792.77
Total PnL
$-3.6K
Realised
$-16.45
Win rate
58%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- NO
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
633 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$633.00
$0.63
- NO
Theo FDV above $700M one day after launch?
139 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$127.46
$0.97
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?
32 shares @ 59.1¢·now 75.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$24.11
$5.18
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 73.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$4.72
$1.07
- YES
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
5 shares @ 23.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.50
$0.35
- NO
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.16
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
1 shares @ 63.0¢·now 83.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.84
$0.21
- YES
Makina FDV above $100M one day after launch?
1 shares @ 43.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.09
$-0.34
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
2 shares @ 20.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.05
$-0.35
- OVER
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5
1161 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-394.74
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$121.50Apr 11, 08:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$521.52Apr 11, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$652.86Apr 10, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?$653.35Apr 9, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?$662.30Apr 8, 14:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$0.40Apr 7, 11:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Melania say "First Lady" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?$661.00Apr 7, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melania say "First Lady" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?$495.75Mar 24, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill between 5500-6000 US flights be delayed on March 24?$0.13Mar 24, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill between 5500-6000 US flights be delayed on March 24?$71.50Mar 24, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$117.81Mar 24, 07:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Connor Storrie attend the Oscars?$450.00Mar 24, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$117.81Mar 23, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-24?$135.52Mar 23, 18:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$253.98Mar 21, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$250.92Mar 20, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$71.71Mar 18, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$80.94Mar 18, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$84.49Mar 18, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$12.78Mar 18, 17:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $196.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 4, 07:36 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 11, 08:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.