Substantial-Capitalism
0xdc40bed433ca678b07083bd93537b66cb8d04ce9
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$742.48
Total PnL
$-185.22
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
645 shares @ 31.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$203.23
$3.23
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
294 shares @ 34.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$113.24
$13.24
- YES
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1250 shares @ 8.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$106.25
$6.25
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
143 shares @ 35.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$55.71
$5.71
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
1136 shares @ 4.4¢·now 4.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$55.11
$5.11
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
139 shares @ 36.0¢·now 35.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$49.03
$-0.97
- YES
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k?
296 shares @ 16.9¢·now 9.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$27.37
$-22.63
- YES
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?
815 shares @ 6.1¢·now 2.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$20.37
$-29.63
- YES
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?
423 shares @ 11.8¢·now 4.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$19.24
$-30.76
- YES
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
2430 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.7¢·exp May 15, 2026$15.80
$-34.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?$0.00May 17, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?$20.77May 17, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?$237.40May 17, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$50.00May 16, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$200.00May 16, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$50.00May 16, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$10.00May 16, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$50.00May 16, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?$10.40May 16, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$10.40May 16, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?$10.35May 16, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?$51.76May 16, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?$102.35May 16, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?$5.00May 16, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$104.60May 16, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$100.00May 16, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Syria security agreement by June 30?$10.00May 16, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$10.50May 16, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?$10.23May 16, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k?$52.08May 16, 09:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $47.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 22, 21:18 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 12:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".