Untried-Budget
0xdd287fd025c76163eeb23345c3a8595f728a374a
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$13.9K
Total PnL
$-10.4K
Realised
$391.42
Win rate
53%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
6437 shares @ 58.6¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.4K
$638.65
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2534 shares @ 62.4¢·now 54.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.4K
$-209.15
- NO
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?
1439 shares @ 90.2¢·now 93.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$43.43
- NO
Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?
1212 shares @ 77.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$108.05
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
480 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$448.42
$-2.40
- NO
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026?
434 shares @ 66.4¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$343.17
$54.57
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
322 shares @ 84.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$284.90
$12.83
- NO
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?
677 shares @ 42.6¢·now 38.9¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$263.11
$-25.45
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
300 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$256.50
$-1.50
- YES
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
629 shares @ 26.2¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$213.93
$49.38
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.07Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$193.50Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.57Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.60Jul 28, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYItaly Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?$5.44Jul 28, 22:19 UTC
- REDEEMMubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng$233.00Jul 28, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLItaly Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?$21.08Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYItaly Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?$26.00Jul 28, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fluminense FC win on 2026-07-29?$102.67Jul 28, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMMubadala Citi DC Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Polina Kudermetova$179.00Jul 28, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$217.65Jul 28, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$138.39Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYClaudio Lotito sells Lazio in 2026?$3.65Jul 28, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYClaudio Lotito sells Lazio in 2026?$7.01Jul 28, 15:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$365.59Jul 28, 15:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.11Jul 28, 11:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cesc Fabregas be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.38Jul 28, 11:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Antonio Conte be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.10Jul 28, 11:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Thiago Motta be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.38Jul 28, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$130.89Jul 28, 11:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $78.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 07:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.