Stained-Defendant-Industrialization
0xdda510aea9859bbdbf9ea690d7e3d9557e2ac82a
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
65
Open notional
$20.0K
Total PnL
$-11.2K
Realised
$-3.97
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
4850 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.4K
$73.76
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3167 shares @ 59.4¢·now 58.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.9K
$-27.39
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
1366 shares @ 95.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.4K
$55.57
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 88.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$997.51
$117.50
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
1000 shares @ 93.5¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$973.00
$38.50
- YES
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?
1000 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$945.00
$45.00
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$945.00
$15.00
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1000 shares @ 73.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$755.00
$25.00
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
500 shares @ 92.5¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$445.00
$-17.50
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 64.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$437.51
$117.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$76.00Jul 29, 13:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$16.00Jul 29, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$153.80Jul 29, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$111.05Jul 29, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$37.60Jul 29, 11:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$304.38Jul 29, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$22.74Jul 29, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$11.91Jul 29, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$4.70Jul 29, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$78.77Jul 29, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$197.00Jul 29, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$86.99Jul 29, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$45.00Jul 29, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$180.00Jul 29, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Syria recognize Israel by December 31?$2.04Jul 29, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYYoon out of custody before 2027?$90.17Jul 29, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYYoon out of custody before 2027?$180.33Jul 29, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$15.49Jul 29, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.16Jul 29, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$53.76Jul 29, 04:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $98.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 15:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.