Improbable-Excursion
0xde6b1418e4be10fbbb80de37df0e60c89062bf15
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-29.0K
Realised
$-1.2K
Win rate
14%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
2655 shares @ 59.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.6K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
1898 shares @ 51.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-984.44
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
1624 shares @ 94.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.5K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
1614 shares @ 69.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
1421 shares @ 93.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.3K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
1211 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-689.92
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
1198 shares @ 49.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-592.20
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
1071 shares @ 40.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-431.18
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
915 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-487.81
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
890 shares @ 51.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-462.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-14?$2.46Jun 13, 10:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$2.81Jun 12, 23:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?$3.70Jun 12, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$1.32Jun 5, 18:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?$1.03Jun 4, 04:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill a hurricane form by May 31?$4.20Jun 2, 02:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?$1.14Jun 1, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$2.15May 31, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?$1.00May 31, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?$1.00May 30, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$2.01May 28, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?$1.25May 22, 06:39 UTC
- REDEEMCerebras IPO before 2027?$1.08May 16, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31?$1.45May 7, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?$1.02May 7, 13:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$1.02May 7, 13:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$1.09May 7, 13:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$2.56May 7, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$5.48Apr 27, 06:20 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?$2.56Apr 27, 06:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $12.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 31, 15:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 10:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.