Improbable-Excursion
0xde6b1418e4be10fbbb80de37df0e60c89062bf15
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-29.0K
Realised
$-1.2K
Win rate
14%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
2655 shares @ 59.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.6K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
1898 shares @ 51.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-984.44
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
1624 shares @ 94.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.5K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
1614 shares @ 69.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
1421 shares @ 93.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.3K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
1211 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-689.92
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
1198 shares @ 49.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-592.20
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
1071 shares @ 40.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-431.18
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
915 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-487.81
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
890 shares @ 51.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-462.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$1.08Jul 13, 22:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?$1.32Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$1.81Jul 1, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?$2.80Jul 1, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMTesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?$1.85Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill China blockade Taiwan by June 30?$3.13Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMAnthropic CEO arrested?$1.35Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$5.32Jun 19, 13:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?$5.49Jun 18, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?$5.01Jun 17, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$5.01Jun 17, 00:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win on 2026-06-14?$2.61Jun 14, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-14?$2.46Jun 13, 10:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$2.81Jun 12, 23:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?$3.70Jun 12, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$1.32Jun 5, 18:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?$1.03Jun 4, 04:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill a hurricane form by May 31?$4.20Jun 2, 02:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?$1.14Jun 1, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$2.15May 31, 21:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $9.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 2, 02:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 22:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.