Thunderous-Inquiry
0xe2a93fdc5ca1502d654738c2b30234f3053579a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$35.33
Total PnL
$-388.70
Realised
$2.77
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 26?
12 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$12.34
$2.34
- NO
Will Denmark vs. North Macedonia end in a draw?
12 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$11.76
$1.76
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 26?
11 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$11.23
$1.24
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20?
1438 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-28.67
- NO
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 9 above $190?
1272 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-25.44
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in February?
403 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will XRP be the top performing crypto for the week of March 9?
266 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-21.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 24?
167 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-26.79
- NO
Will Trump say "Hockey" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
144 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.22
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 23?
84 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-22.56
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Denmark vs. North Macedonia end in a draw?$1.60Mar 26, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Denmark vs. North Macedonia end in a draw?$8.40Mar 26, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 26?$10.00Mar 26, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 26?$9.99Mar 26, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 26?$9.76Mar 26, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 26?$10.00Mar 26, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.11Mar 24, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?$0.18Mar 24, 10:16 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?$0.34Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance?$0.24Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?$0.53Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?$1.09Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?$0.88Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?$0.50Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother crypto hack over $100m before 2027?$3.01Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? $8.43Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?$7.94Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLCritical Discord Incident by June 30, 2026?$1.11Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?$2.58Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31?$13.14Mar 24, 09:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 07:38 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 26, 11:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.