Grounded-Swath
0xe4eb756beaf7bc078e142c1915bdef44b6c941fd
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$683.81
Total PnL
$2.93
Realised
$-2.51
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
639 shares @ 58.1¢·now 55.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$351.44
$-19.56
- NO
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?
324 shares @ 92.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$323.92
$23.92
- YES
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
6 shares @ 32.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$6.25
$4.25
- NO
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?
1 shares @ 69.7¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.24
$0.24
- NO
Clavicular sentenced to prison?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.96
$-0.04
- YES
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by April 30?
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Clavicular arrested again by April 30?
2 shares @ 24.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.37
- NO
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?
1 shares @ 84.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$30.53Apr 27, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$0.01Apr 23, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?$0.66Apr 23, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?$543.78Apr 23, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?$11.88Apr 12, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?$58.34Apr 12, 08:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30?$1.36Apr 12, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?$41.84Apr 12, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?$71.53Apr 12, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?$63.47Apr 11, 06:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?$503.80Apr 11, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$1.76Apr 10, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$0.33Apr 10, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$0.25Apr 9, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$0.25Apr 9, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$0.25Apr 9, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$0.25Apr 8, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$0.25Apr 8, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$1.82Apr 7, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$1.21Apr 7, 19:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $81.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 02:31 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 07:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.