Pale-Paramecium
0xe64c74d826fa6e4a1240e2d6fb9827f6c0bae2b7
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$53.77
Total PnL
$-32.85
Realised
$18.53
Win rate
9%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
14 shares @ 58.4¢·now 74.6¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$10.18
$2.21
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
4 shares @ 94.2¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.93
$-0.05
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
4 shares @ 47.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$3.12
$1.18
- NO
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
6 shares @ 50.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.06
$0.00
- NO
Another pandemic before GTA VI?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.55
$0.00
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4 shares @ 46.1¢·now 58.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.45
$0.51
- YES
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
7 shares @ 29.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.28
$0.36
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 35.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.19
$0.39
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
14 shares @ 14.1¢·now 15.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.05
$0.13
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
2 shares @ 98.1¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.99
$-0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Aug 4, 12:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$0.00Aug 1, 08:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$3.06Aug 1, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.20Aug 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$2.02Aug 1, 04:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.11Jul 31, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.99Jul 31, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.99Jul 31, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.99Jul 31, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$1.99Jul 30, 06:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.49Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$1.99Jul 28, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?$1.98Jul 28, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.99Jul 28, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.99Jul 28, 11:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:57 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$0.00Jul 28, 08:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on July 17?$0.00Jul 28, 04:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$3.76Jul 28, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$0.00Jul 27, 20:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $2.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 07:25 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 12:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.